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Shell’s 2025 Energy Security Scenarios: The Role of AI in the Energy Transition

Shell’s newly released 2025 Energy Security Scenarios explore the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the global energy system, highlighting how AI-driven advancements could reshape energy demand, decarbonization, and economic growth.

Key Takeaways from Shell’s Energy Security Scenarios:

Three AI-Integrated Scenarios:

• Archipelagos & Horizon: Reimagined in the AI context
• Surge: A new scenario depicting economic growth driven by AI-driven productivity gains

10 Key Messages:

1. AI accelerates societal change, economic growth, and energy demand, pushing for a faster transition to low-carbon energy.
2. Population growth and rising prosperity will further increase energy consumption.
3. Technological advancements will outpace energy system transformation.
4. Oil & gas will remain critical for decades, even amid the transition.
5. Continued investment in fossil fuels is necessary across all scenarios.
6. Modular technologies will scale up energy systems efficiently.
7. Renewables and nuclear will drive decarbonization via electrification.
8. Biofuels, hydrogen, CCS, and carbon removal are essential for lowering emissions.
9. Peak CO ₂ emissions are expected within a decade.
10. Net-zero emissions are likely, but the timeline remains uncertain.

AI's growing influence could accelerate energy innovation, reshape geopolitical and economic landscapes, and redefine the low-carbon transition pathway. However, balancing technological progress with energy security remains a key challenge in achieving a sustainable future.