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Solar Module Prices in 2025: Why the Drop Is Over and What's Next for Solar Manufacturing

As it closes out 2024 and looks ahead to 2025, the solar industry faces a reality check: solar module prices, which had once plummeted to $0.08/W, are not expected to drop further anytime soon. In fact, prices may continue to rise due to several key factors.

1. The Entire Silicon Value Chain Took a Hit: The price collapse affected polysilicon, wafers, and cells, with suppliers like LONGi and Tongwei suffering major losses.

2. Solar Manufacturing is Still a Business: After two years of ultra-low prices, manufacturers now seek to recover losses, leading to higher prices across the supply chain.

3. The Price Dominoes: Rising polysilicon prices trigger increases in wafer, cell, and module costs, impacting buyers the most.

4. Modules Reclaim Their Value: Manufacturers are repositioning modules as high-value assets rather than disposable commodities.

5. Market Manipulation: Chinese manufacturers are using production quotas and pricing strategies, backed by government influence, to regain control.

What Does This Mean for 2025?
The market will be more challenging for buyers, especially in the U.S., where trade restrictions add complexity. With prices unlikely to stabilize soon, businesses must stay alert to navigate evolving supply chains effectively.